Institutional FX Insights: JPMorgan Trading Desk Views 11/12/25
FED: The FED cut rates by 25bps as expected, leaving DOTS unchanged, resulting in muted market reaction. Powell noted inflation remains high, labor market softened, but differences exist on tackling these issues. He highlighted a potential 60k overstatement in job numbers and concerns over upcoming data reliability. Employment data remains a key focus, with USD falling ~0.4% post-decision. USD rallies may face selling pressure; EURUSD broke above technical levels, signaling higher potential. AUDUSD faced short-term underperformance due to weak jobs data but remains supported by RBA expectations.
GBP: Powell's cut lacked hawkishness, shifting focus to employment concerns. Sterling remains subdued post Reeves’ grilling, with limited meaningful position adjustments. GBP technical levels show resistance at 0.8750 and support at 1.3265/75. Bailey speaks today but no policy updates expected.
JPY: JPY rebounded as fixed income relief weighed on USDJPY. Oracle results impacted tech broadly. SHF flows shifted to JPY buying after prior selling streak. Resistance at 157.10/20; support at 154.40/50.
CHF: SNB expected to hold rates; disinflation trend needs to deepen before rate cuts are considered. CHF flows balanced between RM/systematics demand and HF supply. Swiss tariffs capped at 15%.
CAD: Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, indicating a prolonged hold. Despite better recent data, macro outlook remains unchanged. CAD used as a funder for EM FX longs; bearish outlook persists despite recent currency strength.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!