SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 19/9/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~61 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6625/15
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6710 SUP 6570
SEP MOPEX STRADDLE - 6260/6639
SEP EOM STRADDLE - 6282/6638
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6670/60
DAILY RANGE RES 6756 SUP 6641
2 SIGMA RES 6819 SUP 6578
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.5
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE 6718/661
.Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
JPMORGAN TRADING DESK VIEWS
Activity around the FOMC: Retail investors exhibited cautious selling in TLT this morning, which intensified following the Fed announcement. A notable spike occurred at 2:15 PM when long-term rates momentarily collapsed. In GLD, retail investors maintained their extraordinary enthusiasm seen throughout the year (Figure 5: Retail Buying into GLD Accelerated This Year), continuing purchases ahead of the Fed decision (see Figure 3: Retail Activity in GLD Increased Around the Fed Announcement; Figure 4: Retail Buyers of GLD Today, in Line with Recent Trends). Post-announcement, retail investors briefly sold GLD during its weakness (2-3 PM) but resumed buying as the price stabilized in the final trading hour. Overall, net buying in GLD was modest compared to earlier this month or the levels observed around Liberation Day (Figure 6: Large Purchases in GLD Resumed in September After ~3 Months). In options, retail investors leveraged the Fed macro event by writing GLD calls and puts to collect premium.
Within Single Stocks, today stood out due to exceptional retail herding in OPEN (+$100M, 8.3z) following the company’s announcement in an 8-K filing with the SEC about plans to expand its product offerings. GRAB’s brief weakness during its rally attracted fresh buying (~6z, Figure 10: Retail Buying in GRAB at ~6z). On the other hand, retail investors are now selling SNAP (Figure 15: Retail Activity in SNAP) and OKLO (Figure 16: Retail Activity in OKLO). Additionally, there was outsized selling in specific Tech and Quality ETFs, including IYW (-7z, Figure 12: Retail Activity in IYW) and QUAL (-3z, Figure 11: Retail Activity in QUAL).
Retail investors net purchased ~$5.5B this week, slightly above the 2-month average of $5.0B/week but below the year-to-date average of $6.5B/week. ETFs dominated retail buying, accounting for +$5.0B, while Single Stocks contributed +$501M. ETF buying was concentrated in Large Cap ETFs (+$1.1B, -0.9z), Fixed Income Multi-sector (+$356M, +2.0z), Corporate Investment Grade (+$305M, +1.7z), and Precious Metals (+$236M, +1.1z). Conversely, retail investors sold Equity Style Quality ETFs (-$13M, -2.4z).
When selecting stocks, retail investors favored Cyclicals, Domestic names, and Inflation Outperformers, while net selling Green/Climate Beneficiaries (Figure 11: Retail Single Stock Activity by Themes). Activity in Mag7 +1 stocks this week included retail buying NVDA (+$126M), AMZN (+$118M), MSFT (+$92M), META (+$53M), PLTR (+$50M), and GOOG/GOOGL (+$6M), while selling AAPL (-$163M) and TSLA (-$134M). Stock bets leaned toward Tech (+$428M), Financials (+$213M), and Real Estate (+$197M) at the expense of Health Care (-$76M) and Communications (-$71M).
Retail activity in options reached its highs again (Figure 31: Retail Option Trading Share). Retail traders net bought $478M of delta while selling $74B of gamma. The supply of gamma favored call selling in NDX, SPX, and GLD, alongside put selling in SPY and QQQ.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!